Soda and Teen Violence: Hazards of Correlational Analysis Can Put Truth in Harm’s Way

Statistical Ammo for the Twinkie Offense: Guns Don’t Kill People, Soda Kills People?

No one with an interest in public health and a zest for social engineering can go wrong by criticizing soda. That particular cup runneth over with empty calories and plausible links to obesity, as well as tooth decay. The carbonated beverage industry is fighting a pitched battle in municipalities across the US to avoid punitive taxation meant to price soda beyond the reach of citizens who seem most at risk of making poor nutritional choices -- choices that ultimately all of us must pay for. No matter what you think of coercive taxation, it’s really hard to defend soda.

Now, though, thanks to research published by two Harvard-trained researchers, Sara Solnick of University of Vermont and David Hemenway of the Harvard School of Public Health, soda has come under another sort of fire.

An analysis performed on the Boston Youth Survey database shows a significant correlation between soda consumption and violence in teens, including a propensity to carry guns and exhibit violent behavior with partners. The paper, which appeared in the Journal of Injury Prevention, got a two-day flurry of press attention because it has a provocative thesis that keyed off the famous “Twinkie Defense.” It gives everyone even more reason to worry about what dangers may lurk in our refrigerators.

Or does it?